Adapting the Law of the River for a dry hydrology — part two - Gunnison Country Times
Lake Powell storage levels began declining in 2000, and by the end of 2004 were at an alarmingly low elevation. As a result, the U.S. Secretary of the Interior ordered the seven Colorado River Basin states to work with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) to reach an agreement to address reservoir operations in dry hydrology.
The parties complied, and the result is the 2007 Interim Shortage Guidelines, which will remain in effect through Dec. 31, 2025. The 2007 Guidelines provide for coordinated operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead during the interim period, the objectives of which are to avoid curtailment of uses in the Upper Basin, minimize shortages in the Lower Basin and not adversely affect the yield for development available in the Upper Basin.
Annual releases from Lake Powell are determined according to storage levels in Powell and Mead so that equalization of storage in the two reservoirs can be achieved as nearly as practicable each year. The Guidelines establish the conditions under which the Secretary of the Interior will declare a shortage in the Lower Basin and apportions the shortage between Arizona and Nevada.
The 2007 Guidelines were the beginning of a new era of collaboration among the seven Colorado River Basin states and the BOR to address the need to adapt the Law of the River to historically dry conditions.
The 2007 Guidelines were moderately successful in meeting their objectives. Still, by summer 2013, the extent of the 2012-13 drought created concerns among Colorado River Basin water managers, including the Secretary of the Interior. All of the models reached similar conclusions: without adjustment to reservoir operations, there was a 20% probability that reservoir levels could reach critical levels within two years, if current conditions continued.
The seven states convened meetings of legal and technical working groups, and they developed a Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) for each basin, finalized in 2019.
The Lower Basin DCP directs that as Lake Mead reaches lowering storage levels, the states must reduce their consumptive use of Colorado River water (called “taking shortages”) based on storage tiers contained in the 2007 Guidelines and supplemented by the DCP. The DCP also provides that California will also take shortages if Lake Mead declines to critical storage levels. Lake Mead storage has fallen to the point that, in 2022, the DCP requires Arizona to take a shortage of 512,000 acre-feet and Nevada, 21,000 acre-feet.
The Lower Basin states announced the “500 Plus Plan” in December 2021. Under the plan, they pledged to collectively preserve 500,000 acre-feet of storage in Lake Mead in 2022 and 2023 — evidence of additional adaptation in response to the dry hydrology.
The Upper Basin DCP consists of three elements:
- • Expand existing weather modification (cloud seeding) and phreatophyte removal
- • Extended operations of the upper Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) reservoirs (Blue Mesa, Flaming Gorge, Navajo)
- • Development of a demand management program
Although its contribution is relatively small, the states have aggressively pursued the first element, especially cloud seeding. To implement the second element, the Upper Basin states entered into a Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), which provides for additional releases from the upper CRSP reservoirs to maintain critical storage levels at Lake Powell.
In July, the Secretary of the Interior exercised her emergency authority under the DROA to release 161,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge and Blue Mesa Reservoirs. (Navajo was spared.) The states and the BOR are developing additional criteria for future releases under the DROA, but the BOR does not presently contemplate further releases in 2022.
Instead, spring releases from Glen Canyon Dam will be reduced to maintain the storage level in Lake Powell. The Upper Basin states are heavily involved in evaluating the advisability and feasibility of the third element, a demand management program that contemplates voluntary, temporary, compensated reductions in consumptive use by Upper Basin water users of all types to maintain compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact. Water preserved under the demand management plan would be stored in Lake Powell under the control of the Upper Colorado River Commission.
In addition to the drought contingency plans, the U.S. has negotiated supplements to the 1944 treaty under which Mexico has agreed to share shortages by taking reductions in its deliveries in amounts comparable to the shortages taken by the Lower Basin states under their DCP.
What Does the Future Hold?
Despite these significant collaborative efforts by the Colorado River Basin states and the BOR to adapt the Law of the River to changing conditions, reservoir levels have continued to decline, so a significant challenge remains. As the states and the BOR begin renegotiating the 2007 Guidelines — to further adapt to drier hydrology — all parties have pledged to continue collaborating on mutually beneficial solutions to address that remaining challenge.
History indicates that they will succeed.
(John McClow is general counsel to the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District.)
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