March 14, 2022

Law: Will Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suárez help Mariners contend? What can Reds expect from Brandon Williamson? - The Athletic

The Mariners’ move to add Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez doesn’t come at a great cost in talent, with just one prospect going to Cincinnati along with two major-league players with low ceilings, but it’s more of a marginal gain for a team that’s trying to contend again while also recognizing its 90-win total isn’t going to repeat if it’s outscored on the season again.

Winker finally had a healthy, almost-full season in 2021, with a career-high 485 PA (still not enough to qualify for the batting average title) and 24 homers, with a tremendous .346/.428/.642 line against right-handed pitchers. He has never hit left-handed pitching in the majors, with a career .188/.305/.295 line against southpaws that actually came down in 2021, and the Mariners may want to just platoon him with Kyle Lewis, if and when Lewis is able to play the outfield again, or a different right-handed bat. Winker is also a below-average defender in right field, so his value in 2021 — 3.2 fWAR, 2.5 rWAR, so around three wins — is probably his ceiling, unless he closes that big platoon gap. The Mariners got very little from left field last year, with a composite .191/.285/.333 line from all players who played the position, so you could platoon Winker with a potted plant and they’d still be two wins better.

Suárez was worth 11 WAR over three years, from 2017-19, peaking at 49 homers in the last of those seasons, but fell off hard last year and was below replacement-level in the third year of his seven-year contract.



source: https://theathletic.com/3183955/2022/03/14/law-will-jesse-winker-eugenio-suarez-help-mariners-contend-what-can-reds-expect-from-brandon-williamson/

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